Canada could produce its largest durum crop in five years in 2025.
In monthly supply-demand estimates on Wednesday that incorporated remote sensing and climate data up to July 31, 2025, Agriculture Canada estimated this year’s durum crop at 5.993 million tonnes. That is up from the government’s July forecast of 5.571 million and now slightly above the 2024 crop of 5.87 million. If accurate, it would be the largest Canadian durum crop since 2020 at 6.571 million.
Ag Canada left its wheat (excl durum) production forecast unchanged from last month at 28.862 million tonnes, down from 29.088 million in 2024. But with the larger durum crop factored in, Canadian all wheat production for 2025-26 is now seen at 34.855 million tonnes, compared to 34.433 million in July and 34.958 million a year earlier.
With durum planted and harvested area unchanged from last month, the increase in production is due to an improved average yield estimate of 34 bu/acre. That is up from 31.6 bu in July and matches the previous year.
In the wake of this month’s larger production estimate, Ag Canada raised its 2025-26 durum export forecast by 200,000 tonnes from July to 4.8 million – still well down from 5.7 million a year earlier - with total domestic use climbing to 927,000 tonnes from 796,000. Durum ending stocks for 2025-26 are pegged at 550,000 tonnes, up 50,000 from last month and above this month’s downwardly revised 2024-25 ending stocks projection of 260,000.
At $315/tonne, the average expected durum price for 2025-26 is unchanged from July and little changed from $321 the previous year.
Ag Canada also revised its 2025 barley production estimate higher, up 400,000 tonnes from July to 8.3 million. That would be up from 8.144 million a year earlier but still below the 2023 crop of 8.905 million. Projected 2025-26 barley exports were raised 100,000 tonnes from last month to 2.84 million, with feed use ticking slightly higher to 5.078 million from 5.028 million.
At 1 million tonnes, estimated 2025-26 barley ending stocks are up 400,000 tonnes from July and but still 100,000 below the revised 2024-25 stocks.
The average expected barley price for 2025-26 was steady from July at $285/tonne, $10 below a year earlier.
Ag Canada maintained its 2025 oat production forecast at 3.395 million tonnes, little changed from 3.358 million in 2024, however, ending stocks for 2024-25 and 2025-26 were revised 25,000 tonnes lower to 325,000 for both marketing years.
The average expected oat price, at $330, is steady from last month and $15 below last year.
